Reliance Power IPO – The Highs and Lows

Subscribed over 10 times (BSE+NSE) and that sends a gush of excitement among many investors, both savvy as well as rookies. Everyone around has been, and is still talking about the Reliance Power IPO that opened for subscription yesterday. I saw many people opening DEMAT accounts just to apply for this IPO and many still finding ways to apply for the Reliance Power IPO. We Indians are really crazy about Reliance, with many of us mostly driven by emotional sentiments of what Dhirubhai Ambani did to the middle class community decades ago. I heard someone even saying that you should invest blindly in anything that begins with “REL”, maybe true, maybe not, only time will tell.

I was going through some writings/analysis/forums/articles today to know more about the frenzy of this Reliance Power IPO. Interestingly, I received an email from one of my close friend on “Why not to invest in Reliance Power IPO”. It seems it is a piece of blog; I tried to search the Internet for its link. However, couldn’t locate any and with due respect to the original writer, I copy-paste the text below.
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Business: R POWER.

The company claims that it will be developing power generation projects of 28200 MW over the next decade. According to the IPO RHP, some of the projects that it will be developing are:

Rosa-I (to be commissioned in March 2010) - 600 MW - Coal based.

Butibori (to be commissioned in June 2010) - 300 MW - Coal based.

Rosa-II (to be commissioned in September 2010) - 600 MW - Coal based.

Shahpur Gas (to be commissioned in March 2011) - 2800 MW - Gas based.

Shahpur Coal (to be commissioned in December 2011) - 1200 MW - Coal based.

Dadri (to be commissioned in March 2013) - 7480 MW - Gas based.

Krishnapatnam (to be commissioned in September 2013) - 4000 MW - Coal based.

Urthing Sobla (to be commissioned in March 2014) - 400 MW - Hydropower based.

Tato II (to be commissioned in March 2014) - 700 MW - Hydropower based.

MP Power (to be commissioned in July 2014) - 3960 MW - Coal based.

Siyom (to be commissioned in March 2015) - 1000 MW - Hydropower based.

Kalai II (to be commissioned in March 2016) - 1200 MW - Hydropower based.

Sasan (to be commissioned in April 2016) - 3960 MW - Coal based.

If everything goes as planned, capacity of Reliance Power at end of each year till 2016 will be:

2008: 0 MW.

2009: 0 MW.

2010: 1500 MW.

2011: 5500 MW.

2012: 5500 MW.

2013: 16980 MW.

2014: 22040 MW.

2015: 23040 MW.

2016: 28200 MW.

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Other Similar Companies:

I can think of two companies in the power generation sector that Reliance Power can be compared with:NTPC and Tata Power.

NTPC has current capacity of 28000 MW and has target to achieve 66000 MW by 2017. (See this thread on NTPC).

Tata Power has current capacity of 2300 MW. It will be adding 10000 MW of capacity more by 2012. Thus, it will have a capacity of around 12300 MW by 2012 end.The additions will all be coal based.

Mundra Ultra Mega Power Project -4000 MW.

Power plants in Maharastra - 3000 MW.

Captive power plants for Tata Steel - 2000 MW

Maithon Power Plant at Jharkhand - 1000 MW.

Tata Power also has other smaller business and also wants to enter shipping and logistics. Besides that Tata Power has investments valued at Rs 400+ per share of Tata Power. This works out to be Rs 10000 crore.

Around 2012 - 2013, both Tata Power is expected to have similar capacity as Reliance Power.The interesting thing is at current price of Rs 1457, Tata Power is valued at just Rs 30000 crore. Remove Rs 10000 crore of investments and you can have it only for Rs 20000 crore.

At Rs 900, Reliance Power will have market value of 200000 crores....6.67 times that of Tata Power.

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Financials:

With 2300 MW capacity, Tata Power made standalone profit of Rs 700 crore in FY 2007.

With 28000 MW capacity, NTPC made standalone profit of Rs 6900 crore in FY 2007.

Lets assume Reliance Power turns out to be much more efficient than these two companies. Add to that increased power rates.

With 28200 capacity, assume Reliance Power makes Rs 15000 crore of net profit in 2016-2017. Power companies are considered as utilities and worldwide trade at 10-15 times their earnings.

Lets assume 15 times ratio for Reliance Power in 2016. What will be its market value?

15000 X 15 = Rs 225000 crore or Rs 995 per share.

This is an optimistic view:

-there will be no further equity dilution till 2016.

-assuming nearly twice as much efficiency as NTPC.

-that all projects will be completed before 2016 end.

-the company would have paid back all debt by then and interest costs would be in similar range as NTPC. (NTPC already has established 28000 MW capacity and comparatively much lesser interest costs. (NTPC's P&L account states Rs 1800 interest cost for FY 2007).

So what about the debt?

The RHP mentions estimated cost of six projects Rosa I, Rosa II, Butibori, Sasan, Shahpur Coal, Urthing Sobla as Rs 30000 crore+.

Analysts estimate that Reliance Power will need Rs 70000 crore of debt to finance its projects which are estimated to cost 100000 crore+.

Rs 70000 crore of debt is not going to come at 2% interest rate. Even a 6% interest would mean an annual interest cost of Rs 4200 crore. Only in 2013, the company's capacity will cross 10000 MW. Thus, I do not expect any major debt repayment before 2014. If things don't go as planned, the debt burden will make a mockery of the balance sheet. With Rs 12000 crore raised in equity and Rs 70000 crore of debt, these whole business will become a high-risk venture.Any unforeseen delay/derailment of plans may create major problems for this company.

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Reliance Power - The Overlooked Fact:

Is Reliance Power just "Reliance Power"?

No.It is actually "Reliance Power Limited" - a limited company.

So what does this mean for Reliance Power Limited?

It means if in the rare case, the calculations of the management go wrong and the company somehow goes to insolvency, none of the shareholders will lose anything except the value of the shares. If you are a share holder of Reliance Power and it goes into insolvency (unable to pay back debts), what do you stand to lose?

Rs 430 per share. Lot of money....right?

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What does Anil Ambani's AAA Project or REL lose?

Both of them had got their 45% (post-IPO) stake for Rs 1000 crore each. Plus they will each subscribe to 1.6 crore shares each at Rs 450 in the IPO......which works out to be Rs 720 crore.

Thus, AAA Project will be getting 101.6 crore shares of Reliance Power for Rs 1720 crore and REL will be getting 101.6 crore shares of Reliance Power for Rs 1720 crore.

Little less than Rs 17 per share.

This is what both the promoters are risking in this project....Rs 17 per share ; while investors will be risking Rs 450 per share.

This is exactly the reason why Reliance Power was created.

First, by contributing just Rs 1720 crore each to Reliance Power, the promoters have shifted all risk to investors.

Second, by getting 45% stake (in REL's projects) to AAA Project for a mere Rs 1000 crore, AAA Projects (and Anil Ambani) have created wealth out of thin air.

Anil Ambani's Rs 1000 crore investment will be worth Rs 100000 crore when Reliance Power lists at Rs 900.If the gamble works, the promoters (holding 90% stake in Reliance Power) will be worth billions of dollars.

If the gamble doesn't work, the promoters will lose Rs 1720 crore each and investors will lose Rs 10000+ crore which they will be paying for a mere 10% stake in Reliance Power.

What a way to create wealth...!!!....I don't have words to describe the brilliance of Anil Ambani's plans...

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First, other companies are much cheaper.

Why should I keep a company valued at Rs 200000 crore - when another company (with similar capacity by 2013) is available at Rs 30000 crore with much smaller debt burden and Rs 10000 crore worth of investments...........referring to Tata Power.

If Reliance Power (at Rs 900) is available for Rs 200000 crore, why not buy NTPC for a similar price ......Rs 225000 crore. NTPC plans to have a capacity of 66000 MW in 2017, while Reliance Power will have 28200 MW capacity in 2016.

Second, the risk is higher than other existing companies. With marginally cash flows for next 5 years and Rs 70000+ crore of debt, the risk for Reliance Power is high. Tata Power and NTPC have existing cash flows to handle expansions....Reliance Power does not.

Third and the biggest factor is....the valuation of the company doesn't make much sense. Why should Reliance Power be valued at Rs 200000 crore, when in highly optimistic scenario, it will not make more than Rs 15000 crore of profit in 2016 ? Even if it touches that figure of Rs 15000 crore, its market value in 2016 will not be much more than 225000-300000 crore. (if given a 15-20 times multiple).

A fixed deposit will make more money than that in 8 years.....and that too without any risk.

Also, I got the optimistic Rs 15000 crore figure by assuming two times margins as NTPC.

The fact is..... at least till 2014, Reliance Power will still be carrying most of its Rs 70000 crore debt and its interest costs will squeeze margins to a large extent.
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(Note: the above text, included in -------- is not my original writing. It is a post from some blog, in case you find a link to this blog please send it to me. I will replace the above text with a link to that blog.)

That is really is good research and really makes sense. However, me, and guess many like me are not looking at a 5 to 10 year horizon. Most investors would be possibly looking at listing gains and exit when Reliance Power gets listed. With many speculations floating around, the stock would surely list at anywhere between 60-100% premium. And then considering the 2010 to 2016 period, we may find a lot of entry and exit points, considering it from a trading perspective.

There are a few who are perhaps looking at long term investments and think that it would do something like Reliance Industries did. However, I guess that would need a visionary like Dhirubhai himself, and no one like him has taken birth yet. Let’s wait and watch if the “Reliance” and “Ambani” tags can create the same magic again :-)